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The State Of The Franchise: Chicago Cubs
2007 Record: 85-77
1st in NL Central
2007 Pythagorean Record: 87-75
The Cubs spent big heading into 2007 by hiring Lou Piniella, signing Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly and Mark DeRosa and it paid off with their first playoff appearance since the fateful 2003 season.
General Manager
Jim Hendry, who had an angioplasty at the Winter Meetings last season, has to be happy with reaching the playoffs in 2007. It was supposed to be a transition year, with 2008 being one where they could actually compete, so the club is ahead of schedule.
Manager
The Cubs decision to go with Lou Piniella instead of Joe Girardi was the correct one in 2007. They got off to a horrible start, but were able to rally behind very good starting pitching, a collapse by the Brewers and an injury-plagued season to the Cardinals to reclaim the NL Central. He has now reached the playoffs in six of his 17 non-Tampa Bay seasons.
The tantrum he threw on June 2nd sparked a 35-18 stretch over the summer.
Catcher
Following his scrap with Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs shipped off Michael Barrett and eventually replaced him with a potpourri of Jason Kendall, Henry Blanco and Koyie Hill. Only Kendall batted over .200 for the Cubs. But the arrival of Geovany Soto in late September indicated that he might is ready for everyday duties. In 54 at bats, Soto had an OPS of 1.100, which came on the heels of a breakout season in Iowa, where he hit 26 homers and batted .353. He has cut his teeth for seven seasons in the Cubs’ farm system and he’s as ready as he’ll ever be.
As a footnote, Soto hit the only homerun for the Cubs in the NLDS.
First Base
While not quite his 2005-self, Derrek Lee rebounded from his injury-plagued 2006 by batting .317, with 22 homers. He was especially good in September, batting .365 with 7 homeruns for the month. Overall, Lee found his power during the second half of the season, hitting 16 of his 22 homers in July, August and September. He just turned 32 and should enjoy two or three more prime seasons.
Second Base
Mark DeRosa gave the Cubs exactly what they were expecting when the signed him last winter. He played 149 games at six different positions (2B, 3B, RF, 1B, LF, SS) and hit .294 with 10 homeruns and 72 RBIs. DeRosa also put his postseason experience from his days in Atlanta to use by hitting .333 and scoring 1/3 of their six runs.
Third Base
If the Cubs were able to sign Alex Rodriguez (to be discussed in the shortstop section), trading Aramis Ramirez might be the follow-up move. He is on an affordable contract and is coming off his fourth consecutive seasons with an OPS over .900. Ramirez will turn 30 next season and the Cubs could find a market for him in which they could yield several quality young arms from a team like San Francisco or the Yankees (ironically enough).
Shortstop
The Cubs will almost certainly be a player in the Alex Rodriguez saga, but could also look to make a deal for Edgar Renteria or Jack Wilson, who would both be better alternatives for what their offense needs than Miguel Tejada and would come at a cheaper price.
But if no obvious improvement can be found, sticking it out with Ryan Theriot could be worse. His .266 average was better than shortstops such as Khalil Greene, Stephen Drew, Omar Vizquel, Julio Lugo and Juan Uribe. Of course he only hit three homers in 537 at-bats and had a .346 slugging percentage, but he had a .522 slugging percentage during his limited 2006 action, suggesting the possibility of increased production in that department.
The Cubs will also certainly keep Ronny Cedeno in the mix, who should eventually figure out how to play at Wrigley the way he does at Principal Park in Iowa.
Left Field
Even though he missed stretches in both the beginning and later part of the season, Alfonso Soriano had an excellent first season for the Cubs. He batted .299, with 33 homers. His walks and stolen bases dipped dramatically, but the latter is probably due to his calf and hamstring woes. Depending on the development of Felix Pie, the Cubs will eventually move Soriano down in the line-up.
Center Field
The Cubs managed to get a better than expected season from Jacque Jones, but it is time to either trade Felix Pie or give him the everyday job. He can’t prove anything else in AAA, where he had an OPS of .973 and giving him a few at-bats here and there with the big league club is no longer enough.
Right Field
The offense is desperate for a left-handed bat with a little thump, but the Cubs will likely ride right field out with Jacque Jones, but I would feel comfortable handing Milton Bradley over to Piniella. He hit .313 with 11 homeruns in 144 at-bats for the Padres before infamously blowing out his knee.
Piniella will also give Matt Murton at bats against lefties.
Starting Pitching
Hendry was very wise to not let Carlos Zambrano hit the open market. Since 2003, only Johan Santana, Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Pedro Martinez have ERAs lower than Zambrano’s 3.30, putting him truly in the category of MLB ace. He rebounded from a rough April (5.77) and May (4.72), to finish the season with an ERA of 3.95. This was the highest of his career, but his stuff is every bit as dominant as it has been in the past.
The Ted Lilly signing proved to be a highly effective one, as he posted his lowest ERA since 2002. As always the case with Lilly though, his maturity comes into question as it did when he embarrassingly slammed his glove to the ground after giving up the Chris Young homerun in Game 2.
The third and fourth slots in the rotation will continue to be manned by lefties Rich Hill and Sean Marshall. Both pitchers had an ERA of 3.92 and Hill struck out a team-high 183 batters.
That final spot in the rotation will likely come down between Jason Marquis and Mark Prior, though closer Ryan Dempster can be given an opportunity as well.
Marquis began 2007 brilliantly, but he struggled down the stretch, finishing with a 4.60 ERA, but he is a consistent innings-eater.
Prior could be offered arbitration again, but he’s unlikely to be ready on Opening Day. He didn’t pitch at all in 2007 and threw only 43.7 innings in 2006. He’s now four full seasons removed from his 2003 season in which he struck out 245 and had an ERA of 2.43. Will the mutual loyalty continue for one more season or will he make a fresh start elsewhere?
Relief Pitching
The Cubs’ bullpen situation looks much better now that Carlos Marmol is coming off a season in which he had a 1.43 ERA and struck out 96 batters in 69.3 innings. He can be saved from the pressures of closing for one more season by leaving Ryan Dempster alone as the de facto Joe Borowski or they can sign a Francisco Cordero or Todd Jones.
Kerry Wood could return and be a real factor as a closer though, reinventing himself like Dennis Eckersley or Rollie Fingers.
Bobby Howry, Michael Wuertz and Scott Eyre all give them nice depth. While rookie Kevin Hart had a 0.82 ERA in his 11 September innings.
Farm System
The time should arrive for Pie and Soto, which makes a thin farm system look even thinner.
Tyler Colvin, Donald Veal, Eric Patterson and Jeff Samardzija are some of the Cubs’ most highly touted prospects.
Colvin hit .299 with 16 homeruns while splitting time between A and AA.
Veal is another left-handed pitcher, who followed a 2006 where he had an ERA of 2.15 with 174 strikeouts, with an ERA of 4.97 and 131 strikeouts in AA.
Patterson is the second baseman of the future and could see some more playing time in the big leagues after batting .297 with 14 homers in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Jeff Samardzija rebounded from a disappointing 4.95 ERA in A ball by going 3-3 with a 3.41 ERA and a WHIP of 1.
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